SOLAR POWER
1% → 9%
of the world’s electricity, 2015 to 2025. Generation grew more than tenfold, from 256 to 2,778 TWh.
Ember
The Paris Progress Bar
In ten years, the world closed half the gap.
When the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, the world’s policies pointed to 3.6°C of warming by 2100. Today they point to 2.6°C. That is nearly half of the distance to the Paris goal of 1.5°C, already traveled.
48%
of the warming gap closed since Paris
Today · 2.6°C
If pledges are met
2.2°C
2.2°C
All net-zero goals
1.9°C
1.9°C
0%
No change100%
1.5°C · Paris goal
No change100%
1.5°C · Paris goal
Warming projections for 2100 from Climate Action Tracker (global update, November 2025). Solid: current policies. Striped: further progress if countries deliver their pledges and long-term targets.
Our method
One headline bar, backed by two layers of evidence.
A single number is easy to share. Two supporting layers show what’s driving it and where the remaining work is.
LAYER 1 · HEADLINEWarming gap closed48%How far projected 2100 warming has fallen since Paris, toward 1.5°C.
LAYER 2 · WHAT’S WORKINGSolutions in motion22%Share of Project Drawdown’s achievable solution impact already deployed.
LAYER 3 · PROOF POINTSMilestones since Paris2015 → nowReal-world shifts in power, cars and costs that anyone can see.
Layer 1 · Headline
How the 48% is calculated
Progress = (start − today) ÷ (start − goal)
(3.6 − 2.6) ÷ (3.6 − 1.5) = 1.0 ÷ 2.1 = 48%
- Start: Paris, 2015. Just before COP21, Climate Action Tracker projected 3.6°C of warming by 2100 under the policies in place.
- Finish: 1.5°C, the goal the Paris Agreement aims for.
- Today: 2.6°C under current policies and action (Nov 2025 update).
- Why warming? It rolls every country, every greenhouse gas and every policy into one number people already understand.
Projected warming by 2100, current policies
- 20153.6°C
- 20212.7°C
- 20252.6°C
- Goal1.5°C
Being honest about pace
Most of the drop happened between 2015 and 2021. The projection has barely moved since. We show this openly: a bar that stalls is the clearest sign of where new effort, and new people, are needed.
Layer 2 · Solutions in motion
The solutions already cut 12.7 billion tonnes a year.
Project Drawdown’s 40 “Highly Recommended” solutions already avoid or remove 12.7 Gt CO₂-eq every year. Fully scaled, they could deliver 47 to 70 Gt a year. We are about a fifth of the way there.
22%
12.7 of 58 Gt/yr (midpoint)
Range 18–27%
Share of each sector’s potential already deployed
- Land & oceans43%
- Industry & waste35%
- Buildings29%
- Transportation20%
- Food & agriculture13%
- Electricity13%
Electricity scores low only because its ceiling is enormous: utility-scale solar alone could avoid 9–11 Gt a year, about 15 times what it delivers today. It is the single biggest opportunity on the board.
Biggest contributors today
- Protecting forests2.0 Gt/yr
- Onshore wind1.6 Gt/yr
- Recycling1.3 Gt/yr
- Better windows & glass1.3 Gt/yr
- Cleaner cement production0.7 Gt/yr
- Utility-scale solar0.7 Gt/yr
Layer 3 · Milestones since Paris
What changed in a decade
ELECTRIC CARS
<1% → 25%
of new cars sold, 2015 to 2025. More than 20 million EVs were sold in 2025.
IEA Global EV Outlook
COST OF SOLAR
−90%
since 2010. 91% of new renewable projects in 2024 beat the cheapest new fossil option.
IRENA
RENEWABLES VS COAL
33.8% vs 33.0%
In 2025, renewables overtook coal as a share of world power, and clean sources covered all new demand.
Ember Global Electricity Review 2026
Why this framing
- It starts at Paris. The first agreement where nearly every country committed, so it’s a fair “before” line.
- It counts what’s already been done. Headlines focus on the gap. This bar shows the distance traveled.
- It uses trusted, independent data that is updated every year, so the bar can keep moving.
- It connects to action. Layer 2 shows which solutions still have room to grow, and our major guides show who builds them.
Limits we want you to know
- Warming projections are models with uncertainty ranges. We use Climate Action Tracker’s central estimate.
- Policies on paper don’t guarantee action. The 48% counts adopted policies, not pledges; pledges are shown separately as striped.
- Drawdown’s ranges are achievable potential, not a forecast. Six solutions have no published current value, so we count them as zero. That makes our 22% conservative.
- Drawdown data come from its Explorer (updated October 2026) and may change as solutions are re-assessed.
When the bar updates
- Headline barEach November, after Climate Action Tracker’s COP update
- Solutions in motionWhen Drawdown Explorer updates
- MilestonesSpring: Ember (April), IEA EVs (May)